Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe

Sonia Quiroga and Ana Iglesias

Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, 2007, vol. 07, issue 14, 18

Abstract: RESUMEN This study provides monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agriculture. Future scenarios are derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate moedls and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model across simulations based on crop productivity changes that consider no restrictions in the volume of water available for irrigation in current irrigated areas or in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Thus the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Regional differences between northern and southern European countries are found and the monetary estimates show that uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than uncertainty derived from climate scenarios. ABSTRACT Este estudio proporciona estimaciones económicas de los efectos del cambio climático en la agricultura Europeal. Los escenarios futuros incorporan proyecciones de cambios socio-económicos y variables climáticas derivadas de modelos de clima global y regional. La valoración económica utiliza el modelo de equilibrio general (GTAP), donde las simulaciones se basan en cambios en la productividad de los cultivos sin considerar restricciones en el volumen de agua de riego en las zonas actuales de regadío ni de fertilizantes. Así, los resultados se pueden considerar optimistas desde el punto de vista productivo, pero pesimistas desde el punto de vista ambiental. Se observan diferencias significativas entre el norte y el sur de Europa y las estimaciones económicas muestran que la incertidumbre asociada a los escenarios socio-económicos es mayor que la asociada a los escenarios climáticos.

Keywords: Environmental; Economics; and; Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Working Paper: Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:earnsa:7053

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.7053

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