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Shocks to a Trading System: Northeast Asia Poultry Trade and Avian Influenza

Christopher G. Davis and John Dyck

International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 2015, vol. 18, issue A, 16

Abstract: Japan and South Korea, net importers of chicken meat, experienced high-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in their domestic broiler populations and faced HPAI outbreaks in some of their principal suppliers in the last two decades. Both countries banned imports of frozen chicken meat from China and Thailand, beginning in 2004. Japanese data show that there was a structural break in import behavior at that time. Rotterdam models are estimated for Japan before and after the break and for Korea from 2005-2013. Results show that China and Thailand competed mostly with each other in the latter period, dividing up the cooked meat trade with few substitution effects evident with other suppliers. Brazil’s exports dominate Japan’s frozen chicken imports. Imports of both Korea and Japan have been rising. Imports from Brazil and China show the most elastic response to increased import expenditure, suggesting that the share of both countries in East Asian imports could grow in the future.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade; Political Economy; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ifaamr:207005

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.207005

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