The dynamic impact of international agricultural commodity price fluctuation on Chinese agricultural commodity prices

Xiaoyu Zhang and Yongfu Liu

International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 2020, vol. 23, issue 3

Abstract: The correlation between Chinese and international commodity prices may be nonlinear because of China’s minimum agricultural commodity purchase price policy and temporary storage policy. In order to research this nonlinear dynamic correlation mechanism, we construct a nonlinear Granger causality test model and a nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model including Chinese and international agricultural commodity (soybean, corn, rice, and wheat) price variables. Our empirical results reveal that a unidirectional causal relation exists between international and Chinese prices for soybeans and corn; specifically, international prices of soybeans and corn Granger-cause Chinese prices of soybeans and corn. Moreover, the pass-through effects between Chinese and international commodity prices are asymmetric; Chinese agricultural commodity prices respond more strongly to positive shocks than negative shocks of international agricultural commodity prices.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ifaamr:307214

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.307214

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