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EMPIRICAL ASESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL CROPS: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS IN PAKISTAN

Muhammad Afzal, Gulzar Ahmed and Muhammad Nadeem Javaid

International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), 2017, vol. 05, issue 2

Abstract: The purpose of present study is to empirically analyze the impact of climate change on three major agricultural crops of Punjab, Pakistan. A variant of Cobb-Douglas production function is applied on the panel of districts of Punjab covering period from 1982 to 2014. It is observed that temperature; rainfall and Humidity have different effects on agricultural crops at different stages of production. This study analyzes the impact of climate change at three different stages of production such as; planting, flowering and harvesting. Overall findings of the study reveal that area and fertilizer have positive effect on all three crops at each stage. Temperature has positive impact on wheat production during the planting and harvesting stage. However, temperature negatively affects the production of wheat during the flowering stage. Rainfall has negative association with the production of wheat during all three stages. Further, results indicate that rainfall, minimum temperature and humidity positively affect the production of rice crop during planting and negatively affect during harvesting. On the basis of empirical analysis, this study suggests that Government should develop new varieties of seeds and allocation of more resources should be encouraged to provide the security against the problems of climate change.

Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Environmental Economics and Policy; Farm Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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