Efficacy of different models in forecasting sunflower prices in major markets of Karnataka

Balachandra K. Naik, Vilas S. Kulkarni, D.K. Kusuma and Prakash Mokashi

Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketing, 2015, vol. 29, issue 2

Abstract: Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) is an important oilseed crop in India, popularly known as “Surajmukhi”. Sunflower is a major source of vegetable oil in the world. The study was based on the time series data on prices of sunflower in five major markets of Karnataka and the data were obtained from krishimaratavahini website for a period of twelve years from 2002–03 to 2014–15. The different models used for knowing the efficacy in price forecasting of sunfl ower were Moving Averages, Artificial Neural Network, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing and Winter's method. The results revealed that, among the different models used, Artificial Neural Network was found to be the best model suited in forecasting sunfl ower prices in the selected major markets of Karnataka. The efficacy was known based on the minimum MAPE value.

Keywords: Crop; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:injagm:399521

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.399521

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