Lasalgaon onion market price forecasting-An application of arima model

M. Areef, S. Rajeswar, N. Vani and G. Mohan Naidu

Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketing, 2015, vol. 33, issue 3

Abstract: The present study used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to estimate the Lasalgaon onion market future prices using time series data from 2003 to 2017. The adequacy of the model was judged by maximum R-Square (75.0), minimum MAPE (30.93), minimum RMSE (440.93) and minimum MAE (269.57). The results showed that the model (0, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1) was found to be the best to forecast onion prices in Lasalgaon market. The forecasted prices of onion would be ranging from Rs. 2879 to Rs. 2748 per quintal for the months from January 2018 to June 2018. Onion future price estimation useful to the farmers for total area allocation under onion crop and to find good markets to sell their produce at remunerative prices.

Keywords: Crop; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:injagm:399656

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.399656

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