Forecasting and unit value realization of shrimp exports from India

K.J.V.K. Sirisha and D.V. Subba Rao

Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketing, 2022, vol. 36, issue 1

Abstract: The present study was to know the unit value realization and future values of shrimp exports from India. The future trend was predicted for up to 2024–25 by employing the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. Stationary of shrimp exports data was tested by Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. Maximum R-Square, minimum Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were used as criteria to select the best model for price forecasting. Based on the above criteria the model (0,1,1) was found to fit the time series to predict future trend. The average unit price for shrimp in USA market was higher than Japan, South East Asia, EU markets and Middle East. China market recorded the lowest unit price than other markets.

Keywords: Agribusiness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:injagm:399809

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.399809

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