The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets

Darrel L. Good, Scott Irwin and Olga Isengildina

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2006, vol. 31, issue 2, 21

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of six major USDA reports in hog and cattle markets: Cattle; Cattle on Feed; Cold Storage; Hogs and Pigs; Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (LDPO); and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). A TARCH-in-mean model, with dummy variables to measure the impact of USDA reports and other external factors, is used to model close-to-open live-lean hog and live cattle futures returns from January 1985 through December 2004. The analysis revealed a statistically significant impact of all but Cattle and Cold Storage reports in live/lean hog futures, and all but Cold Storage reports in live cattle futures. Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live/lean hog returns by increasing conditional standard deviation 96%. Cattle, Cattle on Feed, and Hogs and Pigs reports had the highest impact on live cattle returns by increasing conditional standard deviation between 26% and 37.5%.

Keywords: Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (30)

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Working Paper: The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jlaare:8614

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8614

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