Details about Scott H. Irwin

Homepage:	http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/irwin/
Phone:	2173336087
Postal address:	1301 W. Gregory Dr. 344 Mumford Hall University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Urbana, IL 61801
Workplace:	Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Scott H. Irwin.

Last updated 2023-03-05. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pir28

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Working Papers

2018

1. The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (2)

2016

2. Changes in Informational Value and the Market Reaction to USDA Reports in the Big Data Era
   2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association View citations (2)
3. Market Reaction to Inefficiencies in USDA Crop Production Forecasts
   2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association View citations (1)

2014

4. Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans
   Marketing and Outlook Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (9)
5. Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years?
   Agricultural Outlook Forum 2014, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum

2013

6. Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (28)
   See also Chapter Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (10) (2014)
7. Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs
   2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C., Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
8. Non-Convergence in Domestic Commodity Futures Markets: Causes, Consequences, and Remedies
   Economic Information Bulletin, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service View citations (18)
9. Plenary Panel: Managing Risk in Today's Markets
   Agricultural Outlook Forum 2013, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum

2012

10. Does the Masters Hypothesis Explain Recent Food Price Spikes?
    Working Papers, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA) View citations (5)
    Also in 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, International Association of Agricultural Economists (2012) View citations (5)
11. Farmer’s Income Shifting Option in Post-harvest Forward Contracting
    2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
12. How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets Energy Economics
    ISU General Staff Papers, Iowa State University, Department of Economics View citations (46)
13. Intraday Bid Ask Spread Variation in the Electronically Traded Corn Futures Market
    2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
14. The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Cattle Over 1995-2004
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
15. The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Hogs Over 1995-2004
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
16. When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?
    2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
    See also Journal Article When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?, Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2013) View citations (5) (2013)

2011

17. Accounting for Heterogeneity in Hedging Behavior: Comparing & Evaluating Grouping Methods
    2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland, European Association of Agricultural Economists
18. Alternative 2011 Corn Production, Consumption, and Price Scenarios
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
19. USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates and Yield Forecasts: Dispelling Myths and Misunderstandings
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (10)

2010

20. Alternative 2010 Corn Production Scenarios and Policy Implications
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
21. How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets
    Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC) Publications (archive only), Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University View citations (1)
    Also in Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only), Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University (2010) View citations (1)
    Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University (2010) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article How market efficiency and the theory of storage link corn and ethanol markets, Energy Economics, Elsevier (2012) View citations (54) (2012)
22. The Impact of Index and Swap Funds on Commodity Futures Markets: Preliminary Results
    OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, OECD Publishing View citations (74)

2009

23. 2009 Corn Yield Prospects Continue to Improve
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
24. 2009 Corn Yield Prospects Improving
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
25. 2009 Final Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
26. 2009 Soybean Yield Prospects Improving
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
27. A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence
    2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross‐sectional evidence, Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists (2010) View citations (77) (2010)
28. Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Hard Red Winter Wheat over 1995-2004
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
29. Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soft Red Winter Wheat over 1995-2004
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
30. Do Composite Procedures Really Improve the Accuracy of Outlook Forecasts?
    2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (1)
31. Early Prospects for 2009 Corn Yields in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (6)
32. Early Prospects for 2009 Soybean Yields in Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (4)
33. Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices
    Marketing and Outlook Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
    Also in 2006 Conference, April 17-18, 2006, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management (2006) View citations (1)
34. Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting
    2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
    See also Journal Article Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association (2011) View citations (4) (2011)
35. Poor Convergence Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean and Wheat Futures Contracts: Causes and Solutions
    Marketing and Outlook Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (12)
36. The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Wheat Over 1995-2004
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (4)

2008

37. Are Corn Trend Yields Increasing at a Faster Rate?
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (11)
38. Forming Expectations About 2008 U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields — Application of Crop Weather Models that Incorporate Planting Progress
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
39. How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market
    2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
40. Quantile Regression Methods of Estimating Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts
    2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)
41. So How Do I Make Corn and Soybean Pricing Decisions?
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
42. The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?
    Marketing and Outlook Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (23)
    Also in 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management (2008) View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?, Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (2010) View citations (118) (2010)
43. The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Farmers
    2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
    See also Journal Article The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Farmers, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press (2009) View citations (4) (2009)
44. The New Era of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (4)
45. Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt
    Marketing and Outlook Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (29)

2007

46. 2007 U.S CORN PRODUCTION RISKS: WHAT DOES HISTORY TEACH US?
    Marketing and Outlook Briefs, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (3)
47. Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts
    2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
48. Forecast Performance of Futures Price Models for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat
    2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (2)
49. Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets
    2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (2010) View citations (16) (2010)
50. Smart Money? The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders
    2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (3)
51. The Impact of Measurement Error on Estimates of the Price Reaction to USDA Crop Reports
    2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (3)
52. The Performance of Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts after Recent Changes in Speculative Limits
    2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (6)
53. To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?
    2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
    See also Journal Article To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press (2008) View citations (5) (2008)

2006

54. Accuracy Trends and Sources of Forecast Errors in WASDE Balance Sheet Categories for Corn and Soybeans
    2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (6)
55. Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn over 2002-2004
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (3)
56. Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans over 2002-2004
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (4)
57. Are Corn and Soybean Options Too Expensive?
    2006 Conference, April 17-18, 2006, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
58. Do Interest Rates Explain Disaggregate Commodity Price Growth?
    2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)
59. Has the Performance of the Hog Options Market Changed?
    2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)
60. Is Storage at a Loss Merely an Illusion of Aggregation?
    2006 Conference, April 17-18, 2006, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
61. Should Farmers Follow the Recommendations of Market Advisory Services? A Bayesian Approach to Performance Evaluation
    2006 Conference, April 17-18, 2006, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
62. The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (12)
63. The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2004: A Non-Technical Summary
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (6)
64. Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2005
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (18)
65. What Happens when Peter can't Pay Paul: Risk Management at Futures Exchange Clearinghouses
    2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

2005

66. A Bayesian Implementation of the Standard Optimal Hedging Model: Parameter Estimation Risk and Subjective Views
    2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)
67. A Reality Check on Technical Trading Rule Profits in US Futures Markets
    2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article A reality check on technical trading rule profits in the U.S. futures markets, Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2010) View citations (20) (2010)
68. Complex Choices: Producers Risk Management Strategies
    2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (3)
69. Efficient Portfolios of Market Advisory Services: An Application of Shrinkage Estimators
    2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)
70. Style and Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services
    2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
    See also Journal Article Style and Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (2007) View citations (5) (2007)
71. The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans Over 1995-2003: A Non-Technical Summary
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (5)
72. The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (6)
73. The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (20)
    Also in 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management (2004) View citations (2)
74. The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets
    2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association (2006) View citations (31) (2006)
75. Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2004
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (8)
76. Wheat Forward Contract Pricing: Evidence on Forecast Power and Risk Premia
    2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (2)

2004

77. ARE REVISIONS TO USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS SMOOTHED?
    2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (2006) View citations (27) (2006)
78. Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn in 2001
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (5)
79. Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans in 2001
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (5)
80. Crop Farmers’ Use of Market Advisory Services
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (10)
81. DOES THE MARKET ANTICIPATE SMOOTHING IN USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS?
    2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (2)
82. OPTIMAL HEDGING WITH VIEWS: A BAYESIAN APPROACH
    2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
83. PORTFOLIOS OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES: HOW MUCH DIVERSIFICATION IS ENOUGH?
    2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (1)
    Also in AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics (2003) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Portfolios of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: How Much Diversification Is Enough?, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press (2005) (2005)
84. THE COST OF FORWARD CONTRACTING
    2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (4)
85. THE IMPACT OF MARKETING ADVISORY SERVICE RECOMMENDATIONS ON PRODUCERS' MARKETING DECISIONS
    2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (11)
86. THE MARKETING PERFORMANCE OF ILLINOIS CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCERS
    2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (1)
87. Testing for Yield Persistency: Is It Skill or is It Luck?
    2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (4)
88. The Profitability of Technical Analysis: A Review
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (38)

2003

89. ADVISORY SERVICE MARKETING PROFILES FOR CORN OVER 1995-2000
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (12)
90. ADVISORY SERVICE MARKETING PROFILES FOR SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2000
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (12)
91. EVALUATION OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICE PERFORMANCE IN HOGS
    2003 Conference, April 21-22, 2003, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (1)
92. HOW TO GROUP MARKET PARTICIPANTS? HETEROGENEITY IN HEDGING BEHAVIOR
    2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)
93. New Generation Grain Marketing Contracts
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (5)
94. THE PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS
    2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (14)
95. THE PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2001
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (11)
    Also in AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics (2003) View citations (11)
96. THE PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2001: A NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
97. USDA INTERVAL FORECASTS OF CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES: OVERCONFIDENCE OR RATIONAL INACCURACY?
    2003 Conference, April 21-22, 2003, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management
98. Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: An Overview of Methods, Performance and Market Impacts
    AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (3)

2002

99. AN EVALUATION OF CROP FORECAST ACCURACY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: USDA AND PRIVATE INFORMATION SERVICES
    2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (3)
100. EVALUATION OF RISK REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTI-PERIOL CROP INSURANCE PRODUCTS
     2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (11)
     Also in 2002 Regional Committee NC-221, October 7-8, 2002, Denver, Colorado, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition (2002) View citations (1)
101. THE PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CORN AND SOYBEANS OVER 1995-2000
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (11)
102. TRACKING THE PERFORMANCE OF MARKETING PROFESSIONALS: 1995-2000 RESULTS FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
     AgMAS Project Research Bulletins, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

2001

103. 1999 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVIVES FOR WHEAT
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (6)
104. CROP INSURANCE VALUATION UNDER ALTERNATIVE YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS
     2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (20)
     See also Journal Article Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (2004) View citations (69) (2004)
105. DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE WHEAT MARKET OVER 1995-1998
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (2)
106. Modeling Farmers' Use of Market Advisory Services
     2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (5)
107. PUTTING THE RISK PROTECTION ACT OF 2000 TO WORK: APPLIED MARKETING STRATEGIES (PowerPoint Presentation)
     Agricultural Outlook Forum 2001, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum
108. THE ROLE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN CROP MARKETING AND RISK MANAGEMENT: A PRELIMINARY REPORT OF SURVEY RESULTS
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (7)
109. THE VALUE OF USDA OUTLOOK INFORMATION: AN INVESTIGATION USING EVENT STUDY ANALYSIS
     2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (14)

2000

110. 1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (9)
111. 1999 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (5)
112. DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS OVER 1995-1998
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (3)
113. ESTIMATING FARM-LEVEL YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN ILLINOIS
     2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (2)
114. THE 1995 THROUGH 1998 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR WHEAT
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (8)
115. THE EFFECTS OF FUTURES TRADING BY LARGE HEDGE FUNDS AND CTAS ON MARKET VOLATILITY
     2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (5)
116. THE PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES IN MARKETING WHEAT
     2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management View citations (7)
117. THE PRIVATE SECTOR APPROACH TO GRAIN MARKETING: THE CASE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES
     2000 Producer Marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) View citations (2)

1999

118. 1997 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (6)
119. DO AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES BEAT THE MARKET? EVIDENCE FROM THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS OVER 1995-1997
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
120. SURVEYING FARMERS: A RESEARCH NOTE
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
121. THE MARKETING STYLE OF ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 1995
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (11)

1998

122. 1996 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (12)
123. DEVELOPMENT OF A MARKET BENCHMARK PRICE FOR AGMAS PERFORMANCE EVALUATIONS
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (9)

1997

124. 1995 PRICING PERFORMANCE OF MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS
     AgMAS Project Research Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (7)
125. AN ANALYSIS OF THE PROFILES AND MOTIVATIONS OF HABITUAL COMMODITY SPECULATORS
     ACE OFOR Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (12)
     Also in Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany (1997)
     See also Journal Article An analysis of the profiles and motivations of habitual commodity speculators, Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (1998) View citations (12) (1998)
126. Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers
     Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (11)
     See also Journal Article Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers, Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (1998) View citations (13) (1998)
127. Noise Traders, Market Sentiment, and Futures Price Behavior
     Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (5)

1996

128. NOISE TRADE DEMAND IN FUTURES MARKETS
     ACE OFOR Reports, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics View citations (1)
     Also in Finance, University Library of Munich, Germany (1996) View citations (10)

1990

129. NONSTATIONARITY OF SOYBEAN FUTURES PRICE DISTRIBUTIONS: OPTION-BASED EVIDENCE
     Illinois Agricultural Economics Staff Paper, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

1989

130. An Investigation of Pricing Models for Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Options
     Staff Papers, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics View citations (3)

Undated

131. Commodity Storage under Backwardation: Does the Working Curve Still Work?
     2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
     See also Journal Article Commodity Storage under Backwardation: Does the Working Curve Still Work?, Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (2016) View citations (6) (2016)
132. The Relationship between Commodity Investment Flows and Crude Oil Futures Prices: Real or Spurious?
     2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association View citations (6)

Journal Articles

2017

1. New Evidence that Index Traders Did Not Drive Bubbles in Grain Futures Markets
   Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2017, 42, (01), 23 View citations (10)

2016

2. Are Gasoline Prices Still High Relative to Crude Oil Prices?
   farmdoc daily, 2016, 06
3. Commodity Storage under Backwardation: Does the Working Curve Still Work?
   Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2016, 38, (1), 152-173 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper Commodity Storage under Backwardation: Does the Working Curve Still Work?, 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
4. Forming Expectations for 2016 U.S. Average Corn and Soybean Yields: What about El Niño Transitions?
   farmdoc daily, 2016, 06
5. Forming Expectations for the 2016 U.S. Average Corn Yield: What About El Niño?
   farmdoc daily, 2016, 06 View citations (1)
6. Forming Expectations for the 2016 U.S. Average Soybean Yield: What About El Niño?
   farmdoc daily, 2016, 06
7. More on the Competitive Position of Ethanol as an Octane Enhancer
   farmdoc daily, 2016, 06
8. Release of iFarm Premium Calculator and iFarm Payment Evaluator
   farmdoc daily, 2016, 06
9. The "Necessity" of New Position Limits in Agricultural Futures Markets: The Verdict from Daily Firm-level Position Data
   Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2016, 38, (2), 292-317 View citations (2)
10. The Competitive Position of Ethanol as an Octane Enhancer
    farmdoc daily, 2016, 06 View citations (2)
11. The Crop Acreage Puzzle Revisited--With Implications for 2016
    farmdoc daily, 2016, 06 View citations (1)
12. The New Upside-Down Relationship of Ethanol and Gasoline Prices
    farmdoc daily, 2016, 06 View citations (4)
13. The Profitability of Biodiesel Production in 2015
    farmdoc daily, 2016, 06 View citations (1)
14. The Profitability of Ethanol Production in 2015
    farmdoc daily, 2016, 06 View citations (3)
15. Using FSA Acreage Data to Project NASS January Planted Acreage Estimates for Corn and Soybeans
    farmdoc daily, 2016, 06 View citations (4)
16. farmdoc daily Turns Five Today!
    farmdoc daily, 2016, 06

2015

17. $25 spring wheat was a bubble, right?
    Agricultural Finance Review, 2015, 75, (1), 114-132 View citations (2)
18. 2014 Really Was an Amazing Year for Ethanol Production Profits
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (4)
19. Ethanol Production Profits: The Risk from Lower Prices of Distillers Grains
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (1)
20. Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn
    Agricultural Economics, 2015, 46, (S1), 157-171 View citations (12)
21. Forming Expectations for the 2015 U.S. Average Corn Yield: What Does History Teach Us?
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (11)
22. Forming Expectations for the 2015 U.S. Average Soybean Yield: What Does History Teach Us?
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (10)
23. Forming Expectations for the 2015 U.S. Average Spring Wheat Yield: What Does History Teach Us?
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (8)
24. Forming Expectations for the 2015 U.S. Average Winter Wheat Yield: What Does History Teach Us?
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (2)
25. Further Evidence on the Competitiveness of Ethanol in Gasoline Blends
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (4)
26. Futures Market Failure?
    American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2015, 97, (1), 40-64 View citations (34)
27. Long-Term Corn Price Forecasts and the Farm Bill Program Choice
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (6)
28. Long-Term Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Price Forecasts and the Farm Bill Program Choice
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (7)
29. Price Explosiveness, Speculation, and Grain Futures Prices
    American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2015, 97, (1), 65-87 View citations (40)
30. Progression of USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates and Prospects for Final Estimates for 2015
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (2)
31. Projecting the 2015-16 Corn Balance Sheet and Price Implications
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05
32. RINs Gone Wild? (round 2)
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (3)
33. The Acreage Puzzle
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (3)
34. The Cost of Post‐Harvest Forward Contracting in Corn and Soybeans
    Agribusiness, 2015, 31, (1), 47-62 View citations (6)
35. The Profitability of Biodiesel Production in 2014
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (2)
36. The Real Price of Natural Gas
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (1)
37. The Relationship between Stocks-to-Use and Corn Prices Revisited
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (4)
38. Understanding and Evaluating WAOB/USDA Corn Yield Forecasts
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (2)
39. What if the EPA Implements RFS Mandates for Renewable Fuels at Statutory Levels?
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (5)
40. Where Are Diesel Prices Headed?
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (1)
41. Why Isn't the Price of Ethanol RINs Plummeting?
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (2)
42. Why are Gasoline and Diesel Prices So High? (Relative to Crude Oil Prices)
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05
43. Why is the Price of Biodiesel RINs Plummeting?
    farmdoc daily, 2015, 05 View citations (6)

2014

44. 2014: A Tough Year for Biodiesel Producers
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 4 View citations (3)
45. Are USDA Corn Yield Forecasts Getting Better or Worse over Time?
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 8 View citations (2)
46. Are USDA Soybean Yield Forecasts Getting Better or Worse over Time?
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 8 View citations (2)
47. Bubbles in food commodity markets: Four decades of evidence
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, 42, (C), 129-155 View citations (111)
48. Do Big Corn Crops Always Get Bigger?
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 8 View citations (5)
49. Do Big Soybean Crops Always Get Bigger?
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 7 View citations (4)
50. Do Falling Gasoline Prices Threaten the Competitiveness of Ethanol?
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 6 View citations (6)
51. Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data
    Energy Economics, 2014, 46, (S1), S57-S68 View citations (12)
52. Ethanol Production Profits Hit the Wall
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 4 View citations (1)
53. How Much Will Falling Gasoline Prices Affect Ethanol and Corn Demand?
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04 View citations (5)
54. Owning Corn and Soybeans beyond Harvest in 2014/15
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 4
55. Pricing of 2014 Biodiesel RINs under Alternative Policy Scenarios
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 5 View citations (2)
56. Prospects for Ethanol Production Profits Dim as Gasoline Prices Plummet
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04 View citations (1)
57. Rolling Back the Write Down of the Renewable Mandate for 2014: The RINs Market Rings the Bell Again
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 7 View citations (8)
58. The 2014 U.S. Average Soybean Yield: Headed for a New Record?
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 5
59. The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market
    American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2014, 96, (2), 557-577 View citations (13)
60. Understanding the Behavior of Biodiesel RINs Prices
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 7 View citations (6)
61. What Can We Learn About Corn and Soybean Yields From Crop Tours?
    farmdoc daily, 2014, 04, 5 View citations (1)

2013

62. Commodity index investment and food prices: does the “Masters Hypothesis” explain recent price spikes?
    Agricultural Economics, 2013, 44, (s1), 29-41 View citations (26)
63. Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts
    Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2013, 45, (01), 13 View citations (7)
    Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2013, 45, (1), 95-107 (2013) View citations (7)
64. Measuring Index Investment in Commodity Futures Markets
    The Energy Journal, 2013, Volume 34, (Number 3) View citations (20)
65. Returns to individual traders in agricultural futures markets: skill or luck?
    Applied Economics, 2013, 45, (25), 3650-3666 View citations (9)
66. Solving the Commodity Markets’ Non-Convergence Puzzle
    Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, 2013, (07), 1
67. When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?
    Applied Economics, 2013, 45, (36), 5086-5103 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?, 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington (2012) (2012)

2012

68. A Reappraisal of Investing in Commodity Futures Markets
    Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2012, 34, (3), 515-530 View citations (17)
    Also in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2012, 34, (3), 515-530 (2012) View citations (17)
69. Composite and Outlook Forecast Accuracy
    Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2012, 37, (2), 19 View citations (5)
70. Financialization and Structural Change in Commodity Futures Markets
    Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2012, 44, (3), 26 View citations (95)
    Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2012, 44, (3), 371-396 (2012) View citations (96)
71. How market efficiency and the theory of storage link corn and ethanol markets
    Energy Economics, 2012, 34, (6), 2157-2166 View citations (54)
    See also Working Paper How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets, Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC) Publications (archive only) (2010) View citations (1) (2010)
72. Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets
    Energy Economics, 2012, 34, (1), 256-269 View citations (191)

2011

73. Are Agricultural Options Overpriced?
    Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2011, 36, (01), 15 View citations (3)
74. Empirical confidence intervals for USDA commodity price forecasts
    Applied Economics, 2011, 43, (26), 3789-3803 View citations (8)
75. Improving the accuracy of outlook price forecasts
    Agricultural Economics, 2011, 42, (3), 357-371 View citations (7)
76. Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets
    Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2011, 33, (1), 1-31 View citations (209)
    Also in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2011, 33, (1), 1-31 (2011) View citations (208)
77. Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting
    Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2011, 36, (01), 20 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting, 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri (2009) (2009)
78. New Evidence on the Impact of Index Funds in U.S. Grain Futures Markets
    Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 2011, 59, (4), 519-532 View citations (53)
79. O Excesso de Confiança dos Produtores de Milho no Brasil e o Uso de Contratos Futuros
    Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), 2011, 49, (2), 22 View citations (1)
80. Spreads and Non-Convergence in Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures: Are Index Funds to Blame?
    Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2011, 33, (1), 116-142 View citations (30)
    Also in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2011, 33, (1), 116-142 (2011) View citations (32)

2010

81. A reality check on technical trading rule profits in the U.S. futures markets
    Journal of Futures Markets, 2010, 30, (7), 633-659 View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper A Reality Check on Technical Trading Rule Profits in US Futures Markets, 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri (2005) View citations (3) (2005)
82. A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross‐sectional evidence
    Agricultural Economics, 2010, 41, (1), 25-32 View citations (77)
    See also Working Paper A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence, 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri (2009) View citations (4) (2009)
83. Hog Options: Contract Redesign and Market Efficiency
    Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2010, 42, (4), 18 View citations (1)
    Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2010, 42, (4), 773-790 (2010) View citations (1)
84. Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets
    American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2010, 92, (1), 1-15 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets, 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois (2007) View citations (3) (2007)
85. Quantile Regression Estimates of Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts
    Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2010, 35, (3), 23 View citations (6)
86. Should Farmers Follow the Recommendations of Market Advisory Services? A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Expected Performance
    American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2010, 92, (3), 622-637 View citations (3)
87. The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?
    Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2010, 32, (1), 77-94 View citations (118)
    Also in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 2010, 32, (1), 77-94 (2010) View citations (117)
    See also Working Paper The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?, Marketing and Outlook Research Reports (2008) View citations (23) (2008)

2009

88. Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)
    Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2009, 41, (2), 377-391 View citations (171)
    Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2009, 41, (2) (2009) View citations (163)
89. Is Storage at a Loss Merely an Illusion of Spatial Aggregation?
    Journal of Agribusiness, 2009, 27, (01-2), 20 View citations (2)
90. Market Instability in a New Era of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices
    Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, 2009, 24, (01), 6 View citations (31)
91. Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets
    Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2009, 34, (2), 21 View citations (32)
92. The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Farmers
    Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2009, 41, (1), 177-191 View citations (4)
    Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2009, 41, (01), 15 (2009) View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper The Marketing Performance of Illinois and Kansas Wheat Farmers, 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri (2008) (2008)

2008

93. Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets
    Agribusiness, 2008, 24, (4), 473-490 View citations (30)
94. Producers' complex risk management choices
    Agribusiness, 2008, 24, (1), 31-54 View citations (12)
95. Recent Convergence Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts
    Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, 2008, 23, (2), 6 View citations (9)
96. The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports
    Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2008, 40, (1), 89-103 View citations (41)
    Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2008, 40, (01), 15 (2008) View citations (41)
97. To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?
    Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2008, 40, (1), 73-87 View citations (5)
    Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2008, 40, (01), 15 (2008) View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?, 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois (2007) (2007)

2007

98. Style and Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services
    American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2007, 89, (3), 607-623 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Style and Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services, 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri (2005) (2005)

2006

99. Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?
    American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2006, 88, (4), 1091-1104 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper ARE REVISIONS TO USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS SMOOTHED?, 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri (2004) View citations (8) (2004)
100. The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets
     Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2006, 31, (2), 21 View citations (31)
     See also Working Paper The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets, 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri (2005) View citations (1) (2005)

2005

101. Does the Performance of Illinois Corn and Soybean Farmers Lag the Market?
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2005, 87, (5), 1271-1279 View citations (7)
102. Heterogeneity in the likelihood of market advisory service use by U.S. crop producers
     Agribusiness, 2005, 21, (1), 109-128 View citations (8)
103. Optimal Hedging with a Subjective View: An Empirical Bayesian Approach
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2005, 87, (4), 918-930 View citations (4)
104. Portfolios of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: How Much Diversification Is Enough?
     Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2005, 37, (1), 101-114
     Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2005, 37, (01), 14 (2005)
     See also Working Paper PORTFOLIOS OF AGRICULTURAL MARKET ADVISORY SERVICES: HOW MUCH DIVERSIFICATION IS ENOUGH?, 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri (2004) View citations (1) (2004)

2004

105. Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2004, 86, (2), 406-419 View citations (69)
     See also Working Paper CROP INSURANCE VALUATION UNDER ALTERNATIVE YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS, 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri (2001) View citations (20) (2001)
106. Evaluation of USDA Interval Forecasts of Corn and Soybean Prices
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2004, 86, (4), 990-1004 View citations (12)
107. The Farmdoc Project: This Is Still Your Father's Extension Program
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2004, 86, (3), 772-777 View citations (6)
108. The Impact of Market Advisory Service Recommendations on Producers' Marketing Decisions
     Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2004, 29, (2), 20 View citations (9)

2003

109. An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Agencies
     Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2003, 35, (01), 17 View citations (35)
     Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2003, 35, (1), 79-95 (2003) View citations (35)
110. THE THEORY OF CONTRARY OPINION: A TEST USING SENTIMENT INDICES IN FUTURES MARKETS
     Journal of Agribusiness, 2003, 21, (01), 26 View citations (10)

2002

111. Surveying Farmers: A Case Study
     Review of Agricultural Economics, 2002, 24, (1), 266-277 View citations (34)
     Also in Review of Agricultural Economics, 2002, 24, (1), 266-277 (2002) View citations (33)

2001

112. FORECASTING FED CATTLE, FEEDER CATTLE, AND CORN CASH PRICE VOLATILITY: THE ACCURACY OF TIME SERIES, IMPLIED VOLATILITY, AND COMPOSITE APPROACHES
     Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2001, 33, (3), 16 View citations (7)
     Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2001, 33, (3), 523-538 (2001) View citations (7)
113. PRE-HARVEST PRICING STRATEGIES IN OHIO CORN MARKETS: THEIR EFFECT ON RETURNS AND CASH FLOW
     Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2001, 33, (01), 13 View citations (2)
     Also in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2001, 33, (1), 103-115 (2001) View citations (2)

1999

114. A reappraisal of the forecasting performance of corn and soybean new crop futures
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1999, 19, (5), 603-618 View citations (7)
115. Managed futures, positive feedback trading, and futures price volatility
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1999, 19, (7), 759-776 View citations (12)

1998

116. An analysis of the profiles and motivations of habitual commodity speculators
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1998, 18, (7), 765-801 View citations (12)
     See also Working Paper AN ANALYSIS OF THE PROFILES AND MOTIVATIONS OF HABITUAL COMMODITY SPECULATORS, ACE OFOR Reports (1997) View citations (12) (1997)
117. Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers
     Review of Agricultural Economics, 1998, 20, (2), 308-331 View citations (13)
     See also Working Paper Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers, Finance (1997) View citations (11) (1997)

1997

118. Future price responses to USDA's Cold Storage report
     Agribusiness, 1997, 13, (4), 393-400 View citations (2)
119. The value of public information in commodity futures markets
     Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1997, 32, (4), 559-570 View citations (40)

1996

120. An Examination of Option-Implied S&P 500 Futures Price Distributions
     The Financial Review, 1996, 31, (3), 667-94 View citations (1)
121. IMPROVING THE RELEVANCE OF RESEARCH ON PRICE FORECASTING AND MARKETING STRATEGIES
     Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 1996, 25, (01), 8 View citations (33)
     Also in Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 1996, 25, (1), 68-75 (1996) View citations (31)
122. Monte Carlo Analysis of Mean Reversion in Commodity Futures Prices
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1996, 78, (2), 387-399 View citations (19)
123. Reaction of Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Futures Prices to USDA "Export Inspections" Reports
     Review of Agricultural Economics, 1996, 18, (1), 127-136 View citations (5)

1995

124. Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports: Comment
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1995, 77, (3), 698-702 View citations (4)

1994

125. Rational Expectations in Agriculture? A Review of the Issues and the Evidence
     Review of Agricultural Economics, 1994, 16, (1), 133-158 View citations (14)
126. The forecasting performance of livestock futures prices: A comparison to USDA expert predictions
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1994, 14, (7), 861-875 View citations (4)
127. The performance of alternative VAR models in forecasting exchange rates
     International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (3), 419-433 View citations (16)

1993

128. Economic evaluation of commodity price forecasting models
     International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (3), 387-397 View citations (17)
129. Investment performance of public commodity pools: 1979‐1990
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1993, 13, (7), 799-820 View citations (2)

1992

130. Option‐based evidence of the nonstationarity of expected S&P 500 futures price distributions
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1992, 12, (3), 275-290 View citations (5)
131. The Market Timing Value of Univariate and Multivariate Time Series Models Within the Soybean Complex
     Journal of Agribusiness, 1992, 10, (01), 13
132. Weak- and Strong-Form Rationality Tests of Market Analysts' Expectations of USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports
     Review of Agricultural Economics, 1992, 14, (2), 263-270 View citations (4)

1991

133. The soybean complex spread: An examination of market efficiency from the viewpoint of a production process
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1991, 11, (1), 25-37 View citations (11)

1990

134. Hedging Effectiveness in a Vertical Marketing Channel for Two Periods
     Journal of Agribusiness, 1990, 08, (2), 14
135. The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1990, 72, (1), 84-94 View citations (54)

1989

136. Farmland: A Good Investment?
     Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, 1989, 04, (4), 2
137. Further Evidence on Soybean Marketing Strategies: The Role of Options
     Review of Agricultural Economics, 1989, 11, (2), 213-219 View citations (3)
138. The Distribution of Futures Prices: A Test of the Stable Paretian and Mixture of Normals Hypotheses
     Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1989, 24, (1), 105-116 View citations (53)

1988

139. Returns to Farm Real Estate Revisited
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1988, 70, (3), 580-587 View citations (23)
140. Similarity of computer guided technical trading systems
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1988, 8, (1), 1-13 View citations (7)

1987

141. A note on the factors affecting technical trading system returns
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1987, 7, (5), 591-595 View citations (4)
142. Angell, George. Agricultural Options: Trading Puts and Calls in the New Grain and Livestock Futures Markets. New York: American Management Association, 1986, ix + 230 pp., $22.95
     American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1987, 69, (1), 194

1985

143. Public futures funds
     Journal of Futures Markets, 1985, 5, (2), 149-171 View citations (10)
     Also in Journal of Futures Markets, 1985, 5, (3), 463-485 (1985) View citations (5)

Chapters

2014

1. Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files
   A chapter in The Economics of Food Price Volatility, 2014, pp 211-253 View citations (10)
   See also Working Paper Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (28) (2013)