Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting

Lee Brittain, Philip Garcia and Scott Irwin

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2011, vol. 36, issue 01, 20

Abstract: This paper examines returns from holding 30- and 90-day call and put positions, and the forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets. Implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized volatility, with bias most pronounced in live cattle. While significant returns exist from several positions, strategies are strongly affected by drifts in futures prices. However, returns from live cattle puts are persistent, and evidence from 30-day straddle returns indicates the live cattle market overprices volatility. Overpricing is consistent with volatility risk, the effect of which is magnified by extreme market conditions.

Keywords: Livestock Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jlaare:105515

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.105515

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