AN EVALUATION OF CROP FORECAST ACCURACY FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS: USDA AND PRIVATE INFORMATION SERVICES

Thorsten M. Egelkraut, Philip Garcia, Scott Irwin and Darrel L. Good

No 19068, 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri from NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

Abstract: Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private services. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors across the agencies were highly correlated. Relative accuracy varied by crop and month. In corn, USDA 's forecasts ranked as most accurate in all periods except in August during recent times, and improved more markedly as harvest progressed. In soybeans, forecast errors were very similar with the private agencies ranking as most accurate in August and September and making largest relative improvements in August during recent times. The USDA provided the most accurate October and November forecasts.

Keywords: Crop; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23
Date: 2002
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:ncrtwo:19068

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19068

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