Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans

Scott Irwin, Dwight R. Sanders and Darrel L. Good

No 183477, Marketing and Outlook Research Reports from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Abstract: The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has a number of agencies that are involved in collecting, analyzing, forecasting, and disseminating information about the production and consumption of the corn and soybean crops (Spilka, 1983; Vogel and Bange, 1999; Lusk, 2013). Market participants rely heavily on estimates and forecasts provided by these agencies in order to form price expectations and to make business decisions. In spite of on-going efforts to maintain the quality of information provided and the transparency of the methodology used, misunderstanding, concerns, or complaints about the information provided periodically arise (e.g., USDA/ESRP, 1985; Good and Irwin, 2011). More recently (since 2006) those concerns have centered on the accuracy of the quarterly estimates of corn inventories and to a lesser extent on the methodology and accuracy of early season yield forecasts (e.g., Polansek, 2010; Pleven and McGinty, 2011). It is in that context that this review of USDA forecasts and estimates for corn and soybeans was conducted.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 145
Date: 2014-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uiucmr:183477

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.183477

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