DOES THE MARKET ANTICIPATE SMOOTHING IN USDA CROP PRODUCTION FORECASTS?

Olga Isengildina, Scott Irwin and Darrel L. Good

No 20145, 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: This study examines whether market participants anticipate the predictable component in USDA revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts during 1970/71 through 2003/04 marketing years. The analysis revealed that markets consistently under-predicted October corn production revisions and over-predicted September soybean production revisions. These biases may be attributable to inefficient use of information about smoothing in USDA revisions. In all other cases market analysts seemed to be aware of USDA smoothing practices and generally efficiently incorporated this information into their own forecasts.

Keywords: Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea04:20145

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20145

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