An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Agencies

Thorsten M. Egelkraut, Philip Garcia, Scott Irwin and Darrel L. Good

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2003, vol. 35, issue 1, 79-95

Abstract: Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USD A and two private agencies. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors were highly correlated and unbiased. The relative forecast accuracy of the agencies varied by crop and month. For corn, USDA's forecasts ranked as most accurate of the three agencies in all periods except for August during the recent period and improved most markedly as harvest progressed. For soybeans, forecast errors were very similar, with the private agencies ranking as most accurate for August and September and making largest relative improvements for August during the recent period. The USDA forecasts were dominant for October and November. Our findings identify several patterns of relative forecast accuracy that have implications for private and public decision makers.

Date: 2003
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Agencies (2003)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:35:y:2003:i:01:p:79-95_00

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics from Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().