Optimal Hedging with a Subjective View: An Empirical Bayesian Approach

Wei Shi and Scott Irwin

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2005, vol. 87, issue 4, 918-930

Abstract: The standard optimal hedging model has been the preferred theoretical model of normative hedging behavior. In empirical applications, the model is often implemented with the parameter certainty equivalent (PCE) procedure. However, the PCE procedure completely ignores parameter estimation risk and subjective views. We develop an “empirical” Bayesian optimal hedging model that not only effectively accommodates parameter estimation risk, but also provides hedgers with a theoretically intuitive yet quantitatively rigorous framework to blend their subjective views and a “marketwide” or “firmwide” consensus in determining optimal hedging positions (ratios). Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Date: 2005
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