Weak- and Strong-Form Rationality Tests of Market Analysts' Expectations of USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports

Phil L. Colling, Scott Irwin and Carl R. Zulauf

Review of Agricultural Economics, 1992, vol. 14, issue 2, 263-270

Abstract: This study investigates the rationality of pre-release expectations of experts concerning USDA Hogs and Pigs reports. The expectations are weak-form rational in that they are unbiased predictors of actual report values and the forecast errors are not autocorrelated. In a test of strong-form rationality, all of the economic variables examined were not related to the forecast errors. Thus, the evidence is that expectations of the Hogs and Pigs report are strong-form rational.

Date: 1992
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