Maize yield sensitivity to climate variability in South Africa: application of the ARDL-ECM approach

Rangarirai Roy Shoko, Petronella Chaminuka and Abenet Belete

Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, 2019, vol. 54, issue 4

Abstract: Climate affects crop production decisions and outcomes in agriculture. From very short-term decisions about which crops to grow, when to plant or harvest a field, to longerterm decisions about farm investments, climate can positively or negatively affect agricultural systems. Although the general effects of climate change on agriculture are broadly understood, there are limited studies that model the relationship between specific crops and climate variables. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the sensitivity of maize yield to climate variables, fertilizer use and other non-climate variables. This paper uses annual timeseries data of 47 observations spanning from 1970 to 2016. The results reveal that rainfall and temperature are important maize yield drivers in South Africa. However, if excessive, they will produce negative effects. The findings of this analysis are relevant for designing long-term interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change on maize production.

Keywords: Climate Change; Crop Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pojard:356067

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356067

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