Trends in quinoa adoption in marginal areas: an assessment of economic viability and policy outlook

Hayatullah Ahmadzai

Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, 2020, vol. 57, issue 3

Abstract: The global demand for quinoa has grown substantially, seemingly due to the rich nutritional ingredients found in quinoa grain and its resilience to unfavourable and harsh biotical stresses as well as environmental factors prevalent in marginal environments. Research evidence confirms that global quinoa production and the number of quinoa-producing countries have substantially increased in the recent few years. With intensive research trials and tests underway in more countries across the world, especially in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, researchers and policymakers are determined to upscale its commercial production. However, little is known about its economic viability to substantiate the adoption and ultimately the sustainability of quinoa farming. The economic analysis carried out in this study suggests that quinoa can be highly profitable, but its economic viability largely depends on the availability of high-yielding verities, best management practices through demand-driven extension services, and reliable market information on local demand and prices. Under the most likely production scenario, it is estimated that net profit can reach up to AED 6,059 (USD 1,651) per hectare. Given the lack of quality data, the estimated net gains are simulated to assess the level of sensitivity due to potential uncertainties and volatility in key variables and assumptions. After 10,000 iterations, the results of a Monte Carlo simulation reveal that the average value of simulated net gains is about AED 8,265 per hectare with no significant chances of negative profit.

Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Production Economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pojard:356109

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356109

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