Impact of rainfall variability on maize yield in the KwaZulu-Natal, north-west and free state provinces of South Africa (1987–2017)

Phrasia Mapfumo, Clarietta Chagwiza and Michael Antwi

Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, 2020, vol. 58, issue 4

Abstract: Climate change has caused drought, increased temperatures and decreased crop yield in many places, including South Africa’s North-West province. This study investigated the impact of rainfall variability on maize yield (1987–2017). The objectives were to investigate the impact of rainfall variability on maize yield for the Kwazulu-Natal, North-West, and Free State provinces of South Africa, as well as to assess the differences in the impact of rainfall variability on maize yield between the three provinces. Rainfall and maize yield data were obtained from South Africa Weather Services (SAWS) and the Department of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries (DAFF), respectively. A Pearson Correlation Analysis revealed a weak negative correlation between rainfall and maize in the KwaZulu-Natal and Free State provinces. However, there was also a weak positive correlation between maize yield and rainfall in the North-West province. While rainfall determines yield, it becomes detrimental to yield if it is excessive. Rainfall variability negatively affected maize yield, rainfall exceeding maize’s requirements was not beneficial to crop yield, and drought reduced yield as well. ANOVA results revealed that the group mean yield of the provinces was different, with KwaZulu-Natal having the highest mean yield. The impact of rainfall variability on maize varied between provinces; KwaZulu-Natal was the least affected while the North-West province was the most negatively affected due to droughts causing reduced maize yield.

Keywords: Climate Change; Crop Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:pojard:356115

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356115

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