Propuesta metodologica para la toma de decisiones en la comercializacion de manzana en Argentina

Mario Leskovar, Jose M. Gil and Monia Ben Kaabia

Revista Espanola de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros, 2007, issue 215-216, 30

Abstract: El objectivo de este trabajo consiste en desarrollar una metodologia util que facilite a productores y almacienistas de las variedades tradicionales de manzana del Alto Valle de Rio Negro y Neuquen la toma de decisiones de comercializacion en un contecto de creciente incertidumbre sobre la evolucion de los precios. para ello, se analizan los costes de conservacion a lo largo de la campana y se comparan con los ingresos reales obtenidos y con los que se obtendrian a partir de rediccones de precios realizadas con modelos de series temporales son capaces de generar predicciones comparables en precision a las generadas por los agentes que trabajan en el sector, si bien estas ultimas son mejores conforme aumenta el horizonte de la prediccion. Finalmente, las decisiones que adoptan los productores en base a sus expectativas son similares a las que se hubiesen obtenido con los precios predichos, sugiriendo concentrar las ventas en los ultimos meses del ano...The aim of this paper is to provide a methodological framework to facilitate farmers and warehouses managers the adoption of marketing strategies, in an environment of increasing uncertainty about price evolution. In this paper we make a rigorous analysis of conservation costs along the marketing season and we compare them with revenues calculated using both real and forecasted prices. Results suggest a similar forecasting performance of time series models against experts forecasts, although the latter are better as the forecasting horizon lengthens. Time series forecasts also provide good results in terms of marketing margins and suggest concentrating sales in the last part of the marketing season just when market prices are higher. This is consistent with actual warehouses common practice.

Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:spreea:167791

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.167791

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