Analysis of the macroeconomic effects of EU transfers by the model ‘ECO-TREND’
Tibor Keresztély (),
Ilona Cserháti () and
Zsuzsa Varga ()
Additional contact information
Tibor Keresztély: ECOSTAT, Budapest, Hungary
Ilona Cserháti: ECOSTAT, Budapest, Hungary
Zsuzsa Varga: ECOSTAT, Budapest, Hungary
Society and Economy, 2008, vol. 30, issue 2, 209-225
Abstract:
EU transfers play a significant role in the long-term convergence of the Hungarian economy. The paper presents several channels through which transfers can be effective. First the modelling experiences and other techniques are summarised which can be useful to estimate the impact of EU transfers.Next we present the so-called ECO-TREND model developed in the ECOSTAT, suitable for both mid- and long-term forecasts and scenario analysis. The assessment of the model parameters has been based on standard statistical methods and on experts’ estimations. Such a model can be a useful decision-making tool for the economic policy. Finally, forecasts are presented for the Hungarian economy until 2020, which is completed by the analysis of three different macroeconomic scenarios based on different subsidy-absorption rates and different structures of expenditure.
Keywords: EU transfers; macroeconomic modelling; scenario analysis; forecasting; long-term model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
http://akademiai.com/content/318j62230726l138/fulltext.pdf (application/pdf)
subscription
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aka:soceco:v:30:y:2008:i:2:p:209-225
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Akadémiai Kiadó Zrt., P. O. Box 245, H-1519 Budapest, Hungary
https://akjournals.com/
Access Statistics for this article
Society and Economy is currently edited by Szent-Iványi, Balázs
More articles in Society and Economy from Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kriston, Orsolya ().