Use of Cues in Forecasting Tasks: Evidence from Sport Predictions

Norbert Becser, Bálint Esse and Richárd Szántó ()
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Norbert Becser: Institute of Business Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
Bálint Esse: Institute of Business Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
Richárd Szántó: Institute of Business Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary

Society and Economy, 2018, vol. 40, issue 4, 587-603

Abstract: We asked Hungarian students to make soccer forecasts for a round of the Chilean Primera División, which was selected to minimise recognition heuristics, as this league is not followed by Hungarian soccer fans. Students made their forecasts based on cues about the teams. They received sets of cues of different quality based on previously composed expert evaluations of the given information. Although there were interesting findings regarding expertise and gender differences, the central question concerned how students evaluated the cues they received. Results show a pattern that we interpret as the contrast effect in information sets, which is present independent of gender or expertise.

Keywords: sports forecasting; cue value; gender differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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