Empirical estimates for the Brazilian total imports equation using quarterly national accounts data (1996–2010)

Raphael Rocha Gouvêa and Bernardo Patta Schettini
Additional contact information
Raphael Rocha Gouvêa: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), Brazil
Bernardo Patta Schettini: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), Brazil

Economia, 2015, vol. 16, issue 2, 250_271

Abstract: This paper presents econometric estimates for the Brazilian aggregate imports over the period 1996–2010. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that uses the Brazilian quarterly national accounts with this goal in mind. Besides estimating a demand equation (canonical model), as it is usual in the literature, we also explore the co-movements among total imports, gross fixed capital formation and household consumption (alternative model). The results underscore the role played by domestic income, which is the main determinant of total imports. The limited domestic supply of capital goods makes the allocation of domestic income also relevant to the imports dynamics. It should be noted, however, that this specification needs a better theoretical grounding. Evidence of nonlinearities has been found by different estimation techniques. Unfortunately its precise characterization turns out to be difficult due to the diversity of the results obtained. The out-of-sample assessment (one-step-ahead forecast) shows a good performance of the long-run vectors of the alternative models in predicting aggregate imports, meanwhile the best performance is obtained by the error correction representations of the canonical model. We believe those differences emerge from the different speeds of adjustment toward the long-run solutions

Keywords: Quarterly Brazilian imports; Cointegration models with structural breaks; Markov-switching models; State-space models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 F1 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/15177580/16/2 (text/html)
http://ac.els-cdn.com/S1517758015000181/1-s2.0-S15 ... 9b9c5347417519eeea67 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:anp:econom:v:16:y:2015:2:250_271

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Campus do Gragoatá, Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil
http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/

Access Statistics for this article

Economia is currently edited by Joaquim Pinto de Andrade

More articles in Economia from ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] Secretaria da ANPEC Rua Prof Marcos Valdemar de Freitas Reis s/n Campus do Campus do Gragoatá, Bloco F Niterói, RJ 24210-201 Brazil. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Rodrigo Zadra Armond ().