Modeling US adult obesity trends: A system dynamics model for estimating energy imbalance gap

S. Fallah-Fini, H. Rahmandad, T.T.-K. Huang, R.M. Bures and T.A. Glass

American Journal of Public Health, 2014, vol. 104, issue 7, 1230-1239

Abstract: Objectives. We present a system dynamics model that quantifies the energy imbalance gap responsible for the US adult obesity epidemic among gender and racial subpopulations. Methods. We divided the adult population into gender-race/ethnicity subpopulations and body mass index (BMI) classes. We defined transition rates between classes as a function of metabolic dynamics of individuals within each class. We estimated energy intake in each BMI class within the past 4 decades as a multiplication of the equilibrium energy intake of individuals in that class. Through calibration, we estimated the energy gap multiplier for each gender-race-BMI group by matching simulated BMI distributions for each subpopulation against national data with maximum likelihood estimation. Results. No subpopulation showed a negative or zero energy gap, suggesting that the obesity epidemic continues to worsen, albeit at a slower rate. In the past decade the epidemic has slowed for non-Hispanic Whites, is starting to slow for non-Hispanic Blacks, but continues to accelerate among Mexican Americans. Conclusions. The differential energy balance gap across subpopulations and over time suggests that interventions should be tailored to subpopulations' needs.

Keywords: adult; ancestry group; article; body mass; caloric intake; diet; energy metabolism; ethnology; female; health survey; human; male; obesity; sex difference; theoretical model; United States, Adult; Body Mass Index; Continental Population Groups; Diet; Energy Intake; Energy Metabolism; Female; Health Surveys; Humans; Male; Models, Theoretical; Obesity; Sex Factors; United States (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2014.301882_8

DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.301882

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