Adult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence: Declining as Expected (Not as Desired)

D. Mendez and K.E. Warner

American Journal of Public Health, 2004, vol. 94, issue 2, 251-252

Abstract: We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R2=.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.

Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:2004:94:2:251-252_0

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