Russia-Ukraine War and Price Volatility of Global Commodities - The Role of Public Sentiments

Khadijat A. Azeez, Victor O. Hambolu, Andy Okwu and Bukunmi A. Agboola ()
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Bukunmi A. Agboola: Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria

Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, 2024, vol. 5, issue 2, 1-6

Abstract: We analysed how public sentiments have affected global commodity market volatility during the Russia-Ukraine war. Using principal component analysis, we created a sentiments index from 30 carefully selected Google trends search keywords related to the war. We tested the predictability of the sentiments index against market volatility. Our results show that while public sentiments increase commodity market volatility, incorporating the sentiment index into our predictive model significantly improves its precision.

Keywords: Public sentiments; Commodity market; Volatility; Predictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 G11 G41 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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