Ecb interest rates: a predictive model

Vincenzo D’Apice, Francesco Masala and Pierluigi Morelli
Additional contact information
Vincenzo D’Apice: ABI
Francesco Masala: ABI
Pierluigi Morelli: ABI
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Vincenzo D'Apice

BANCARIA, 2018, vol. 3, 42-46

Abstract: Euro area economic recovery is starting to create the conditions for reducing monetary stimulus. We create a predictive model in order to forecast the probability of Ecb moving interest rates, based on consumers’ confidence index, expected inflation and an index of systemics stress in the Euro area. The model shows that the probability of an Ecb interest rate rise has gone up to 36% while it was only 4% at the beginning of 2017

JEL-codes: E43 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.bancaria.it/en/ecb-interest-rates-a-predictive-model (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ban:bancar:v:3:y:2018:m:march:p:42-46

Access Statistics for this article

BANCARIA is currently edited by Bancaria Editrice - the publisher of the Italian Banking Association

More articles in BANCARIA from Bancaria Editrice
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Francesco Emiliano Tani ().