Measuring Inflation Expectations in Argentina: Economic Analysts versus Financial Markets

Patricio Temperley

Ensayos Económicos, 2024, vol. 1, issue 84, 160-189

Abstract: Inflation in Argentina over the past few years has been high and volatile, making it increasingly important to forecast it accurately in the short term. This paper compares the predictive power of monthly inflation projections made by economic consultants surveyed by the Central Bank through the Market Expectations Survey (REM) and implicit inflation (break-even) in financial markets, derived from Nelson-Siegel-Svensson models on zero-coupon curves. The results suggest that REM expectations were a better reference for forecasting the evolution of inflation in Argentina in the short term during 2020-2023.

Keywords: inflation expectations; implicit inflation; market surveys; zero-coupon curves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E44 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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