EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Prediction Intervals for ARIMA Models

Ralph Snyder (), Keith Ord () and Anne B Koehler

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2001, vol. 19, issue 2, 217-25

Abstract: The problem of constructing prediction intervals for linear time series (ARIMA) models is examined. The aim is to find prediction intervals that incorporate an allowance for sampling error associated with parameter estimates. The effect of constraints on parameters arising from stationarity and invertibility conditions is also incorporated. Two new methods, based on varying degrees of first-order Taylor approximations, are proposed. These are compared in a simulation study to two existing methods, a heuristic approach and the "plug-in" method whereby parameter values are set equal to their maximum likelihood estimates. A comparison of the four methods is also made for quarterly retail sales for 10 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. The new approaches provide a systematic improvement over existing methods.

Date: 2001
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Working Paper: Prediction Intervals for Arima Models (1997)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:19:y:2001:i:2:p:217-25

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.amstat.org/publications/index.html

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics is currently edited by Jonathan H. Wright and Keisuke Hirano

More articles in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics from American Statistical Association
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().

 
Page updated 2019-10-16
Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:19:y:2001:i:2:p:217-25