Details about John Keith Ord

Access statistics for papers by John Keith Ord.

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Working Papers

2015

1. Forecasting Compositional Time Series: A State Space Approach
   Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
   See also Journal Article Forecasting compositional time series: A state space approach, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2017) View citations (7) (2017)

2012

2. Intermittent demand forecasting for inventory control: A multi-series approach
   Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

2011

3. Forecasting the Intermittent Demand for Slow-Moving Items
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting
   Also in Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics (2010) View citations (2)

2010

4. Forecasting Compositional Time Series with Exponential Smoothing Methods
   Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (2)

2009

5. Exponential Smoothing and the Akaike Information Criterion
   Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (1)

2008

6. Exponential smoothing and non-negative data
   Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting View citations (5)
7. Monitoring Processes with Changing Variances
   Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (1)
   Also in Working Papers, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting (2008)
   See also Journal Article Monitoring processes with changing variances, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2009) View citations (1) (2009)

2007

8. Non-linear exponential smoothing and positive data
   Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

2005

9. Forecasting Time-Series with Correlated Seasonality
   Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (1)
10. Time Series Forecasting: The Case for the Single Source of Error State Space
    Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (6)

2002

11. Exponential Smoothing for Inventory Control: Means and Variances of Lead-Time Demand
    Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

2001

12. Prediction Intervals for Exponential Smoothing State Space Models
    Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (19)

1999

13. Forecasting Models and Prediction Intervals for the Multiplicative Holt-Winters Method
    Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting models and prediction intervals for the multiplicative Holt-Winters method, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2001) View citations (30) (2001)
14. Forecasting for Inventory Control with Exponential Smoothing
    Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2002) View citations (17) (2002)

1998

15. Lead Time demand for Simple Exponential Smoothing
    Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (8)

1997

16. Prediction Intervals for Arima Models
    Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics
    See also Journal Article Prediction Intervals for ARIMA Models, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (2001) View citations (9) (2001)

1995

17. Estimation and Prediction for a Class of Dynamic Nonlinear Statistical Models
    Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics View citations (54)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Art Getis and Local Spatial Statistics
   Journal of Geographical Systems, 2024, 26, (2), 191-200 View citations (1)

2022

2. The uncertainty track: Machine learning, statistical modeling, synthesis
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2022, 38, (4), 1526-1530 View citations (1)

2021

3. Maximizing the probability of realizing profit targets versus maximizing expected profits: A reconciliation to resolve an agency problem
   International Journal of Production Economics, 2021, 238, (C) View citations (1)

2017

4. Forecasting compositional time series: A state space approach
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (2), 502-512 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting Compositional Time Series: A State Space Approach, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers (2015) (2015)

2016

5. Privatization and Fiscal Deficits in European Emerging Markets
   Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2016, 52, (11), 2585-2594

2012

6. A study of outliers in the exponential smoothing approach to forecasting
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 477-484 View citations (4)
7. Forecasting the intermittent demand for slow-moving inventories: A modelling approach
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 485-496 View citations (45)
8. Local spatial heteroscedasticity (LOSH)
   The Annals of Regional Science, 2012, 48, (2), 529-539 View citations (7)

2010

9. A new end-of-auction model for curbing sniping
   Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2010, 61, (8), 1265-1272 View citations (10)
10. Long-run credit growth in the US
    Journal of Economics and Business, 2010, 62, (5), 383-400

2009

11. Introduction to time series monitoring
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (3), 463-466 View citations (2)
12. Monitoring processes with changing variances
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2009, 25, (3), 518-525 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Monitoring Processes with Changing Variances, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers (2008) View citations (1) (2008)

2008

13. Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal patterns
    European Journal of Operational Research, 2008, 191, (1), 207-222 View citations (47)

2007

14. Comments on "significance tests harm progress in forecasting"
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2007, 23, (2), 331-332
15. Delivery performance in vendor selection decisions
    European Journal of Operational Research, 2007, 176, (1), 534-541 View citations (2)
16. The Estimation of Conditional Distributions From Large Databases
    The American Statistician, 2007, 61, 308-314

2006

17. Market risk and process uncertainty in production operations
    Naval Research Logistics (NRL), 2006, 53, (7), 627-640
18. Twenty-five years of forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2006, 22, (3), 413-414 View citations (4)

2005

19. Prediction intervals for exponential smoothing using two new classes of state space models
    Journal of Forecasting, 2005, 24, (1), 17-37 View citations (30)

2004

20. Charles Holt's report on exponentially weighted moving averages: an introduction and appreciation
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2004, 20, (1), 1-3 View citations (1)
21. Exponential smoothing models: Means and variances for lead-time demand
    European Journal of Operational Research, 2004, 158, (2), 444-455 View citations (11)
22. Shrinking: When and how?
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2004, 20, (4), 567-568 View citations (2)

2002

23. Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2002, 18, (1), 5-18 View citations (17)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting for Inventory Control with Exponential Smoothing, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers (1999) View citations (1) (1999)
24. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners: J. Scott Armstrong (Ed.), (2001), Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 849 pages. Hardback: ISBN: 0-7923-7930-6; $190, [UK pound]133, [euro;]210.00, Paperback: ISBN: 07923-7401-0; $95; [UK pound]66.50, [euro;]105
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2002, 18, (3), 468-478

2001

25. Forecasting models and prediction intervals for the multiplicative Holt-Winters method
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2001, 17, (2), 269-286 View citations (30)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting Models and Prediction Intervals for the Multiplicative Holt-Winters Method, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers (1999) View citations (5) (1999)
26. Prediction Intervals for ARIMA Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2001, 19, (2), 217-25 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper Prediction Intervals for Arima Models, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers (1997) (1997)
27. Testing for Local Spatial Autocorrelation in the Presence of Global Autocorrelation
    Journal of Regional Science, 2001, 41, (3), 411-432 View citations (47)

2000

28. Analysis of a dual sourcing inventory model with normal unit demand and Erlang mixture lead times
    European Journal of Operational Research, 2000, 120, (1), 97-107 View citations (11)
29. Automatic neural network modeling for univariate time series
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 16, (4), 509-515 View citations (20)
30. Commercially available software and the M3-Competition
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 16, (4), 531-531 View citations (1)
31. The M3-Competition1
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2000, 16, (4), 433-436 View citations (11)
32. Viewpoint and Respons
    Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2000, 51, (9), 1107-1110

1999

33. Lead time demand for simple exponential smoothing: an adjustment factor for the standard deviation
    Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1999, 50, (10), 1079-1082 View citations (9)

1998

34. An Inventory Model with Order Crossover
    Operations Research, 1998, 46, (3-supplement-3), S112-S119 View citations (20)

1996

35. Outliers in statistical data: V. Barnett and T. Lewis, 1994, 3rd edition, (John Wiley & Sons, Chichester), 584 pp., [UK pound]55.00, ISBN 0-471-93094-6
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1996, 12, (1), 175-176

1995

36. Rethinking the reengineering metaphor
    The Electricity Journal, 1995, 8, (7), 22-30
37. The future of the International Journal of Forecasting
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1995, 11, (2), 197-198

1994

38. Elements of multivariate time series: Gregory C. Reinsel, 1993, Springer Series in Statistics, (Springer-Verlag, New York), 263 pp. US 49.00. ISBN 0-387-94063-4
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (3), 463-463
39. The past and the future of forecasting research
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1994, 10, (1), 151-159 View citations (4)

1993

40. Calculating Interval Forecasts: Comment
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1993, 11, (2), 138-39
41. Calculating interval forecasts: C. Chatfield, Journal of business and economic statistics, 11 (1993), 121-144 (with discussion and response by author)
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (3), 430-430
42. Note: Dual sourcing with nonidentical suppliers
    Naval Research Logistics (NRL), 1993, 40, (2), 279-288 View citations (5)
43. Personal views of the M2-competition
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (1), 26-28 View citations (2)
44. The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1993, 9, (1), 5-22 View citations (78)

1991

45. Automatic forecasting using explanatory variables: A comparative study
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1991, 7, (2), 127-140 View citations (7)
46. Sole Versus Dual Sourcing in Stochastic Lead-Time (s, Q) Inventory Models
    Management Science, 1991, 37, (4), 428-443 View citations (82)

1990

47. Improving and Measuring the Performance of a Securities Industry Surveillance System
    Interfaces, 1990, 20, (5), 31-42 View citations (1)

1989

48. Forecasting using automatic identification procedures: A comparative analysis
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 5, (2), 209-215 View citations (3)
49. Market structure and technological change: William L. Baldwin and John T. Scott, (Harwood Academic Publishers, Chur, New York and Switzerland, 1987) pp. 170, $?
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 5, (2), 281-282
50. Model selection and estimation for technological growth curves
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1989, 5, (4), 501-513 View citations (12)

1988

51. Future developments in forecasting: The time series connexion
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (3), 389-401 View citations (2)
52. The manager's guide to business forecasting: Michael Barron and David Targett. (Blackwell, Oxford and New York, 1985) pp. 230, $39.95, [UK pound]15.00
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1988, 4, (3), 498-498

1986

53. AUTOBOX: (Version 1.02, March 1986). Automatic Forecasting Systems Inc., P.O. Box 563, Hatboro, PA 19040, 215-675-0652. List price $1,695 (AUTOBJ-univariate only-$595). Requirements: 320K, two disk drives (or one drive and a hard disk), DOS 2.0 or better
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1986, 2, (4), 511-513
54. The forecasting accuracy of major time series methods: Spyros Makridakis, Allen Andersen, Robert Carbone, Robert Fildes, Michele Hibon, Rudolf Lewandowski, Joseph Newton, Emmanuel Parzen and Robert Winkler (Wiley, New York and Chichester, 1984) $34.50/sP43.50, pp. 301
    International Journal of Forecasting, 1986, 2, (1), 119-121

1985

55. An Investigation of Transactions Data for NYSE Stocks
    Journal of Finance, 1985, 40, (3), 723-39 View citations (275)

1983

56. The truncated normal–gamma mixture as a distribution for lead time demand
    Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 1983, 30, (2), 359-365 View citations (2)

1977

57. A Note on Trend Removal Methods: The Case of Polynomial Regression versus Variate Differencing
    Econometrica, 1977, 45, (3), 737-44 View citations (24)
58. Algorithm 2: Latent Roots and Vectors of an Arbitrary Real Matrix
    Environment and Planning A, 1977, 9, (6), 703-713

1976

59. The Analysis of Commuting Patterns
    Environment and Planning A, 1976, 8, (8), 941-946

1975

60. The Comparison of Means When Samples Consist of Spatially Autocorrelated Observations
    Environment and Planning A, 1975, 7, (6), 725-734 View citations (2)

Chapters

2010

1. Spatial Autocorrelation: A Statistician’s Reflections
   Springer
2. The Analysis of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics
   Springer View citations (90)