Economics at your fingertips  

Lead time demand for simple exponential smoothing: an adjustment factor for the standard deviation

Ralph Snyder (), A B Koehler () and Keith Ord ()
Additional contact information
A B Koehler: Miami University

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1999, vol. 50, issue 10, 1079-1082

Abstract: Abstract A new simple formula is found to correct the underestimation of the standard deviation for total lead time demand when using simple exponential smoothing. The traditional formula for the standard deviation of lead time demand is to multiply the standard deviation for the one-period-ahead forecast error (estimated by using the residuals) by the square root of the number of periods in the lead time. It has been shown by others that the traditional formula significantly underestimates variation in the lead time demand when the mean of the process is somewhat changing and simple exponential smoothing is appropriate. This new formula allows one to see readily the significant size of the underestimation of the traditional formula and can easily be implemented in practice. The formula is derived by using a state-space model for simple exponential smoothing.

Keywords: Lead time demand; exponential smoothing; prediction intervals; safety stock (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... search/journal/41274

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Operational Research Society is currently edited by Tom Archibald and Jonathan Crook

More articles in Journal of the Operational Research Society from Palgrave Macmillan, The OR Society
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

Page updated 2019-06-13
Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:50:y:1999:i:10:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2600806