EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Why is the Interest Rate an Inverted Leading Indicator of Macroeconomic Activity in the United States?

Patrick Pintus ()

Rue de la Banque, 2017, issue 49

Abstract: The real interest rate at which US firms borrow funds to finance their investment and other expenses has two striking features. It is low when GDP is high (and vice versa) and it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity. Low interest rates today forecast future booms in GDP, consumption, investment, and employment. This Rue de la Banque shows that inherent to such correlations is a redistribution channel through which resources typically flow from lending entities to borrowing firms during expansions. Such a redistribution channel is driven by expectations about future levels of the borrowing cost, which accounts for a large share of the volatility of output, investment and other macroeconomic variables during business cycles.

Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/defaul ... ue_49_2017-10_en.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Why is the Interest Rate an Inverted Leading Indicator of Macroeconomic Activity in the United States? (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:rueban:2017:49

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Rue de la Banque from Banque de France Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael brassart ().

 
Page updated 2019-10-14
Handle: RePEc:bfr:rueban:2017:49