EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Policies for a Second Wave

David Baqaee, Emmanuel Farhi, Michael Mina and James H. Stock
Additional contact information
Emmanuel Farhi: Harvard University
Michael Mina: Harvard University
James H. Stock: Harvard University

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2020, vol. 51, issue 2 (Summer), 385-443

Abstract: In the spring of 2020, the initial surge of COVID-19 infections and deaths was flattened using a combination of economic shutdowns and noneconomic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The possibility of a second wave of infections and deaths raises the question of what interventions can be used to significantly reduce deaths while supporting, not preventing, economic recovery. We use a five-age epidemiological model combined with sixty-six-sector economic accounting to examine policies to avert and to respond to a second wave. We find that a second round of economic shutdowns alone are neither sufficient nor necessary to avert or quell a second wave. In contrast, noneconomic NPIs, such as wearing masks and personal distancing, increasing testing and quarantine, reintroducing restrictions on social and recreational gatherings, and enhancing protections for the elderly together can mitigate a second wave while leaving room for an economic recovery.

Keywords: COVID-19; policymaking; noneconomic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/policies-for-a-second-wave/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:51:y:2020:i:2020-02:p:385-443

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity from Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haowen Chen ().

 
Page updated 2025-03-19
Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:51:y:2020:i:2020-02:p:385-443