Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030

Kym Anderson and Anna Strutt

Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2014, vol. 58, issue 4, 590-606

Abstract: type="main" xml:id="ajar12039-abs-0001">

Rapid economic growth in some emerging economies in recent decades has significantly increased their global economic importance. If this rapid growth continues and is strongest in resource-poor Asian economies, the growth in global demand for imports of primary products also will continue, to the ongoing benefit of natural resource-rich countries. This paper explores how global production, consumption and trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes under various scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database with a base year of 2007, along with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline assuming that trade-related policies do not change in each region but that factor endowments and real GDP grow at exogenously estimated rates. That baseline is compared with two alternative scenarios: one in which the growth rates of China and India are lower by one-quarter and the other in which this slowdown in emerging economies leads to slower productivity growth in the primary sectors of all countries. Throughout the results, implications are drawn out for natural resource-abundant economies, including Australia and New Zealand.

Date: 2014
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ajar.2014.58.issue-4 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Journal Article: Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030 (2013)
Working Paper: Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030 (2013)
Working Paper: Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030 (2013)
Working Paper: Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030 (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:58:y:2014:i:4:p:590-606

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://ordering.onli ... 1111/(ISSN)1467-8489

Access Statistics for this article

Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics is currently edited by John Rolfe, Lin Crase and John Tisdell

More articles in Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().