Futures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America

Dragan Miljkovic and Cole Goetz

Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2023, vol. 67, issue 1, 104-117

Abstract: The objective of this paper was to determine whether the futures markets have a stabilising or destabilising impact on soybean's spot prices in North America. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are used to test for causality between futures prices, spot prices and ending stocks, followed by time series econometric analysis. The DAGs point to the two‐way causal link between futures and spot prices and a lack of a causal link between inventory/stocks and spot price volatility. Time series results, including cointegration, vector error correction, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, indicate a large impact from futures markets on the level and volatility of soybean spot prices in both the short and long run. These results have potentially important implications, as the impact of commodity price volatility is typically asymmetric across different actors. Farmers, for example, unlike speculators, utilise price risk management (PRM) instruments such as futures markets to mitigate price risks and appear to suffer from intensified volatility precisely because of their use of these instruments. Therefore, additional policies to cope with commodity price volatility, such as direct price controls or mitigation of consequences, can have critical stabilising functions supporting farmers' welfare and regional (rural) development.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12504

Related works:
Journal Article: Futures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:67:y:2023:i:1:p:104-117

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://ordering.onli ... 1111/(ISSN)1467-8489

Access Statistics for this article

Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics is currently edited by John Rolfe, Lin Crase and John Tisdell

More articles in Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics from Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().