EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN CAPITAL ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN CENTRAL ASIA

Annageldy Arazmuradov ()

Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 2016, vol. 87, issue 2, 275-304

Abstract: This paper investigates the short-run impact of shocks in international capital flows channeled through foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign aid on national output and export performance in five Central Asian economies under a dynamic multivariate structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. The identification of structural shocks is implemented by AB model based on IS-LM-BP postulates. The main message is that external capital shocks are persistent and small open economies are weak to absorb them. Overall, the aid shocks reduce national outputs, while FDI increase it, on average. The expansion of global demand (G20) leads to an increase in domestic GDPs, notably in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The impact is augmented by a positive effect of FDI on export channel (and net exports) that shift the IS curve upwards. We cannot find any significant aid-FDI nexus in the region, except in Kazakhstan. The structural variance decomposition (SFEVD) results suggest that external flows and foreign demand together explain the bigger part of variability in domestic GDP and exports. Finally, variations in foreign capital, aid and FDI, are mainly explained by series themselves. The role of domestic activities is found to be weaker for aid and greater for FDI. The results could be attributed to rigid exchange rates, high trade dependence, and necessity for foreign capital to explore natural resources in Central Asian region. Our results provide some valuable suggestions to improve an investment climate for boosting economic growth.

Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/apce.2016.87.issue-2/issuetoc (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:annpce:v:87:y:2016:i:2:p:275-304

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=1370-4788

Access Statistics for this article

Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics is currently edited by Marco Marini

More articles in Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().

 
Page updated 2021-05-12
Handle: RePEc:bla:annpce:v:87:y:2016:i:2:p:275-304