Growth in Densely Populated Asia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters

Kym Anderson and Anna Strutt

Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, 2014, vol. 1, issue 1, 112-126

Abstract: Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section.

Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/app5.14 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Growth in Densely Populated Asia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters (2014)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:asiaps:v:1:y:2014:i:1:p:112-126

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=2050-2680

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().