Growth in Densely Populated Asia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters

Kym Anderson and Anna Strutt

Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies from Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section.

Keywords: Asian economic growth; global economic-wide model projections; booming sector economics; food security; bilateral trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea
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