Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Bilateral Agricultural Trade

Jungho Baek and Won W. Koo

Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 2009, vol. 57, issue 2, 187-203

Abstract: This paper uses an autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration to examine the short‐ and long‐run effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. Results show that, in the long run, while U.S. agricultural exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates and foreign income, U.S. agricultural imports are mostly responsive to the U.S. domestic income. In the short run, on the other hand, both the bilateral exchange rates and income in the United States and its trading partners are found to have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural exports and imports. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle autorégressif à retards échelonnés (autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration) pour examiner les effets à court et à long terme des variations de taux de change sur le commerce bilatéral des produits agricoles entre les États‐Unis et ses dix principaux partenaires commerciaux. Les résultats ont montré que, à long terme, bien que les exportations agricoles des États‐Unis soient très sensibles aux taux de change bilatéraux et au revenu étranger, les importations agricoles des États‐Unis sont principalement sensibles au revenu intérieur des États‐Unis. À court terme, par contre, les taux de change bilatéraux et le revenu des États‐Unis et de ses partenaires commerciaux ont des répercussions considérables sur les exportations et les importations agricoles des États‐Unis.

Date: 2009
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