Crop Yield Response to Climate Variables on Dryland versus Irrigated Lands

Wei Lu, Wiktor Adamowicz, Scott R. Jeffrey, Greg G. Goss and Monireh Faramarzi

Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 2018, vol. 66, issue 2, 283-303

Abstract: Key Points We examine the response of barley, canola, and spring wheat yields to a set of climate variables on both dryland and irrigated lands in southern Alberta, Canada. We find that warming and increased precipitation tend to increase crop yields on dryland, increased precipitation in June and July tends to show opposite effects on crop yields on irrigated lands. Based on regional climate change projection scenarios, we find that climate change decreases crop yields for all the three crops under dryland production. However, yields of canola and spring wheat under irrigation are slightly increased. Few researchers have examined the impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture and crop production. This may be due to an assumption by researchers that irrigation management can offset impacts of climate change. We investigate this issue by examining the response of barley, canola, and spring wheat yields to a set of climate variables on both dryland and irrigated lands in southern Alberta, Canada, with a panel data set at the county level from 1983 to 2007. Our results suggest that warming and increased precipitation tend to increase dryland crop yields, while increased precipitation in June and July tends to show opposite effects on crop yields on irrigated lands. Based on regional projected climate change scenarios, we find that climate change decreases crop yields for all the three crops under dryland production. However, yields of canola and spring wheat under irrigation are increased slightly. Peu de chercheurs se sont penchés sur les impacts des changements climatiques sur l'agriculture irriguée et le rendement des cultures. Il se pourrait que ce soit parce que les chercheurs supposent que les régimes d'irrigation peuvent neutralise les impacts des changements climatiques. Nous examinons cet enjeu en étudiant le rendement de l'orge, du canola et du blé de printemps en fonction de variables climatiques à la fois en sols arides et en sols irrigués au sud de l'Alberta, au Canada avec un ensemble de données de panel provenant des comtés de 1983 à 2007. Les résultats démontrent que le réchauffement et l'augmentation des précipitations semblent accroître le rendement des sols arides mais que cette dernière, lorsqu'elle survient en juin ou juillet, semble engendrer l'effet contraire sur le rendement en sols irrigués. Nous constatons, selon les scénarios hypothétiques de changements climatiques régionaux, une diminution du rendement agricole pour les trois cultures en sols arides. Par contre, le rendement des cultures de canola et de blé de printemps en sols irrigués augmenterait légèrement.

Date: 2018
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