China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?
Zhao Liu and
China & World Economy, 2017, vol. 25, issue 6, 65-83
This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012â€“2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation. Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and importâ€ intensityâ€ adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012â€“2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000â€“2015 industryâ€ level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policyâ€ makers.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:chinae:v:25:y:2017:i:6:p:65-83
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=1671-2234
Access Statistics for this article
China & World Economy is currently edited by Yongding Yu
More articles in China & World Economy from Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().