ASYMMETRIES IN THE RESPONSES OF REGIONAL JOB FLOWS TO OIL PRICE SHOCKS
Economic Inquiry, 2018, vol. 56, issue 3, 1827-1845
This paper studies the effect of oil price innovations on manufacturing job flows across U.S. states. First, I estimate a nonlinear structural equation model and compute impulse response functions by Monte Carlo integration. I find asymmetries in the responses of job flows to positive and negative oil price innovations. Yet, these asymmetries do not pass a test of symmetry on the impulse responses, especially after accounting for data mining. Third, I use a test for the absence of job reallocation to evaluate whether an unexpected increase in the real price of oil price triggers an important change in job reallocation. I find that oil price shocks have limited regional allocative effects. (JEL E24, E32, Q43)
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Working Paper: Asymmetries in the Responses of Regional Job Flows to Oil Price Shocks (2017)
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