The impact of uncertainty on fan interest surrounding multiple outcomes in open European football leagues

Pedro Garcia‐del‐Barrio and J Reade

Economic Inquiry, 2026, vol. 64, issue 1, 371-390

Abstract: This paper uses searches via Google to evaluate the importance of uncertainty in driving demand for entertainment events. We consider various dimensions of uncertainty of outcome in European football to examine whether the removal of uncertainty surrounding the winner of a competition before its conclusion reduces interest. We find a significant decrease in interest, although this appears mitigated by the existence of multiple objectives, such as qualifying for European competitions and avoiding relegation. We conclude that such a diversified and open structure (including promotion and relegation) is desirable in leagues that do not have a final play‐off system.

Date: 2026
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https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70024

Related works:
Working Paper: The Impact of Uncertainty on Fan Interest Surrounding Multiple Outcomes in Open European Football Leagues (2023)
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