The Language of Chance

D.R. Bellhouse and J. Franklin

International Statistical Review, 1997, vol. 65, issue 1, 73-85

Abstract: Prior to 1654, the accepted date of the birth of the probability calculus, the publication of probabilistic calculations was very spotty. The few calculations that have been made are reviewed in David (1962), Coumet (1965), Hald (1990), Kendall (1956), Schneider (1988), and Todhunter (1865). In view of the paucity of the publication record, authors such as Hacking (1975) have argued that modern concepts of probability did not exist before 1654. Other authors have speculated about what held up the development of the probability calculus. We examine the use and context of what in modern usage are now considered to be probabilistic words. These are words such as lots, chance and odds like twenty to one. The examination of the English literature leads one to believe that knowledge of an elementary probability calculus was present in the culture well before 1654. Simple probabilities were calculated probably as early as the time of Chaucer (1340?–1400). Subjective probability statements through the quotation of odds and through the description of fair and false dice were well understood by mid‐sixteenth century. Avant 1654, la date géralement admise comme le début du calcul des probabilités, les réfeacute;rences á des calculs impliquant des concepts probabilistcs s'avérent très sporadiques. les quclqucs réfeacute;rences qu'on a pu trouver sont passées en revue dans les articles de David (1962), coumet (1965), hald (1990), kendall (1956), schbeuder (1988) et todhunter (1865). ce peu de citations a porté des chercheurs tels hacking (1975) a` conclure que les concepts probabilistes modernes n'existaient pas avant 1654. D'autres chercheurs ont formulé des hypothéses quant à ce qui aurait pu retarder le développement du calcul des probabilités. Nous étudions i'utilisation et le contexte de termes considérés comme relevant des probabilités dans I'usage moderne. ces termes comprennent des expressions ou des mots tels tirage au sort, chance et cote de vingt contre un par example. une étude de la littérature anglaise nous amène à croire que les concepts éleacute;mentaires du calcul des probabilités furent probablement calculées de temps de chaucer(1340?‐1400). Des concepts de probabilités subjectives tels la description de cotcs et de dés pipétaicat dćjagrave; bien compris au du seiziéme sième sièle.

Date: 1997
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