A Perspective on the Accuracy of Economic Observations

Zoltan Kenessey

International Statistical Review, 1997, vol. 65, issue 2, 247-259

Abstract: In 1950 appeared the first edition of Oskar Morgenstern's Famous book, The Accuracy of Economic Observations. Nearly half a century later it is timely to return to Morgenstern's diagnosis and to contemplate his therapeutic recommendations. Morgenstern's vision can and should inform the consideration of the topic today because of the continued validity of many of his findings. His work still provides stimuli for studying the general problems of measurement, the varying requirements for accuracy, the issues of aggregate macroeconomic measures, and the prospects for economic and social measurement. This is so even if some of the bleaker assessments by Morgenstern, notwithstanding their technical merits, provide little or no practical guidance for statistical activities. In this context it is enlightening to recall the different practical attitudes adopted by Keynes and by some of his contemporaries in Germany regarding theoretical difficulties with aggregate macroeconomic data. En 1950 la célègrave premiére édition du livre d'oscar Morgensten intitulé“L 'Exactitude des observations Econimiques”(or “The accuracy of Economic observations”) a paru. presque d'un demi siécle aprés, il est opportun de revenir au diagnostic de Morgenstern et de se pencher sur ses recommandations thérapeutiques. La vision de Morgenstem peut et doit nous faire revenir à ce sujet aujourd'hui à ce sujet aujourd'hui à cause du fait que ces résultats sont encore vrias. Son travail stimule I'études des problémes générayx de mesure, les xigences changeantes pour exactitude, les questions de mesures d'agrégation en macro‐économique, ainsi que son potentiel pour les mesures économiques et sociales. ceci tient même si quelques évaluations moins fortes de morgenstern, en dépit de leurs mérites techniues, apportent peu ou aucun conseil pratique pour les points de vue statistiques adopté par deynes et par certains de ses collègues ses collègues en allemagne au des dificultés théoriaues avec les données macro‐économique agrégées.

Date: 1997
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