De Vetula: a Medieval Manuscript Containing Probability Calculations

D.R. Bellhouse

International Statistical Review, 2000, vol. 68, issue 2, 123-136

Abstract: De Vetula, a poem that contains probability calculations on the throw of three dice, was written in the mid‐thirteenth century. The poem was widely circulated, read and quoted. There is strong evidence that some of the medieval readers clearly understood how the probability calculations were obtained. Based on the discussion given here, it is put forward that an elementary probability calculus was established and known in Europe from about the year 1250. A translation of the relevant section of the poem is given.

Date: 2000
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