Statistical Regularity and Free Will: L.A.J. Quetelet and P.A. Nekrasov

Eugene Seneta

International Statistical Review, 2003, vol. 71, issue 2, 319-334

Abstract: In the 19th century, causes of empirically observed stability of averages in settings relating to human behaviour were a topic of intense discussion in western Europe. This followed an extensive study of empirical stability by the founder of modern statistics (and of the International Statistical Institute) L.A.J. Quetelet, published in 1835, in what he called “Social Physics”. The eminent mathematician of strong probabilistic and philosophical inclination and Russian Orthodox religious belief, P.A. Nekrasov, took up and modified Quetelet's Social Physics in 1902, with (social) independence seen as prime cause of statistical regularity. Our paper focuses on the role free will plays in the statistical writings of Quetelet and of Nekrasov. The work of the latter has remained little known in general, mainly for politico‐ideological reasons. Au XIXe siécle, en Europe occidentale, on discuta avec vivacité des causes de la stabilité des moyennes qu'on observait empiriquement dans les phénomènes relatifs aux comportements humains. Ceci eut lieu après la publication en 1835 de la “Physique Sociale”, étude approfondie de la stabilité empirique, effectuée par le fondateur de la statistique moderne (et de l'Institut International de Statistique), L.A.J. Quetelet. Le méthématicien éminent, P.A. Nekrasov, aux opinions probabilistes et philosophiques marquées, adepte de la religion orthodoxe russe, reprit et modifia la physique sociale de Quetelet en 1902 et considéra l'indépendance (sociale) comme la cause première de la régularité statistique. Notre contribution se concentre sur le rôle joué par le libre arbitre dans les écrits statistiques de Quetelet et de Nekrasov. Le travail de ce dernier est resé en général peu connu, principalement pour des raisons politico‐idéologiques.

Date: 2003
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