A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Treatment of the Ban on UK Beef Exports: A Note

George Philippidis and Lionel Hubbard

Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2005, vol. 56, issue 2, 307-312

Abstract: Hubbard and Philippidis Journal of Agricultural Economics (2001) Vol. 52, pp. 87–95] employ the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the impact of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)‐induced ban on exports of UK beef. This note extends that study in four ways: (i) the dynamic GTAP model is employed to characterise long‐run savings–investment behaviour more correctly; (ii) the effect of the foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreak of 2001 is included; (iii) an allowance is made for different levels of recovery in consumer confidence; and (iv) the impact analysis is now compared through time with a ‘no‐ban’ baseline. Long‐run comparisons after removal of the ban suggest that its legacy may continue for some time. However, because of the remedial safeguards and assurances offered in the wake of the BSE and FMD crises, there is a possibility that exports and outputs increase. Nevertheless, the economy‐wide impacts are negligible in both the short and the long run.

Date: 2005
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