The hot hand in professional darts

Marius Ötting, Roland Langrock, Christian Deutscher and Vianey Leos‐Barajas

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2020, vol. 183, issue 2, 565-580

Abstract: We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying form, and we use auto‐regressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. Our results regarding the persistence of the latent process indicate a weak hot hand effect, but the evidence is inconclusive.

Date: 2020
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https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12527

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