The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Some Results from a Macroeconometric Model

Richard Arden, Steve Cook, Sean Holly and Paul Turner ()

Manchester School, 2000, vol. 68, issue 4, 419-441

Abstract: This paper offers evidence of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on economic activity. First, asymmetric adjustment is captured in three macroeconomic relationships for investment, the consumer price deflator, inventories and house prices. These relationships are then embedded in a small macroeconometric model of the UK economy. Simulations on this model allow us to trace through the interactions of these asymmetries so that a monetary shock—measured by a change in interest rates—affects output and inflation in the short run in ways dependent both upon the sign of the shock and the initial state of the economy. A monetary easing has significantly larger effects on inflation when the economy is close to capacity compared with when it is in recession. These effects are captured by intrinsic asymmetries in the model, due to the use of the logarithm of interest rates and the logarithm of unemployment in the wage equation, as well as the asymmetries coming from the non‐linearities which we have introduced explicitly.

Date: 2000
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